| iv> | | | | civil war. Between 1970 and 1990 Lebanon tried to flay |
| | | | itself alive when predominantly Shia and Christian |
| Between 1970 and 1990 all of those student fighting | | | | forces pursued a scorched earth policy of |
| today were babies who took their first breaths from | | | | internecine savagery. These are its offspring; civil war |
| the choking smoke of the gothic ruins of burning Beirut | | | | is no stranger to them,.. it is their parents. All of those |
| and heard their first sounds among the cries of pain | | | | student fighting today were babies who took their first |
| and the thunder of guns, in one the world most intense | | | | breaths from the choking smoke of the gothic ruins of |
| and horrific civil wars.Their hopes and perspectives in | | | | burning Beirut and heard their first sounds among the |
| pieces, the youth of Lebanon now look only | | | | cries of pain and the thunder of guns, in one the world |
| backwards in a vain attempt to resolve their problems | | | | most intense and horrific civil wars. |
| through re-confronting their buried demons. We | | | | For a little time afterwards, as the once glittering, |
| must all be united or we have to look for our country in | | | | Parisian-cultured society began rebuilding, the economy |
| the graveyard of history. These words today by | | | | boomed, the tourist flowed back and those same |
| the Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament, Nabih Berri, | | | | students never spoke about their religious |
| adequately sum up the tragic perspectives that have | | | | backgrounds. It was almost taboo. 15 years after the |
| now opened up for Lebanon. Students are always a | | | | war, the same cell phone touting, tech-savvy youth |
| sensitive barometer of tensions building up in society | | | | were mixing across communities and dreaming of |
| and often act as the flash that ignites the fuse. In the | | | | prosperity and peace. Then suddenly this year, like a |
| microcosm of yesterday's encounters we find the | | | | thunder bolt from the blue, they castles in the sky |
| clear outlines of the future conflagration. By all reports | | | | were shattered by the battering ram of Israeli tanks |
| it began with a tiff between a group of Sunni and | | | | and bombs. The destruction of their homeland brought |
| Shiite students. Within hours it engulfed Beirut’s | | | | back all the horrors and all the childhood trauma of civil |
| Al-Arabiya University campus and spread beyond it | | | | war like a horrible, disfiguring acne, once banished and |
| into mixed Sunni/Shia neighbourhoods. As students | | | | now back to haunt them as adults in their bathroom |
| battled initially with police, men wearing construction | | | | mirrors. They would never look at themselves and |
| hats and wielding iron bars piled in on the side of the | | | | country in the same way again. Their hopes and |
| students. The Army was called in and battled all day to | | | | perspectives in pieces, the youth of Lebanon now look |
| try to keep the two sides from tearing each other | | | | only backwards in a vain attempt to resolve their |
| apart. As fighting spilled over into local areas, hundreds | | | | problems through re-confronting their buried demons. |
| of unemployed and working youth began battling with | | | | That is why nothing will now stop the plunge into the |
| stones, bars and any weapons they could get their | | | | vortex of civil war and the self-destruction of Lebanon. |
| hands on. It was not long before the first shots rang | | | | Few countries survive two civil wars, especially when |
| out. Witnesses identified Sunni snipers were firing on | | | | both are within one generation. |
| unarmed youths and locals. Counter shots rang out | | | | However, contrary to some assertions, history never |
| from assault rifles. 4 died and 35 were injured. | | | | repeats itself. The coming civil war has already begun |
| Independent commentators are now generally agreed | | | | taking a new shape within the student unrest. Rather |
| that the civil unrest was totally spontaneous in | | | | than Shia versus Christian, it has begun as Sunni |
| character. This fact alone is far more dangerous than | | | | versus Shia. This is because it lies on far-western side |
| had it been deliberately planned and led by either pro | | | | of the Shia/Sunni sectarian fault line now opening up |
| or anti-government political leaders. Its spontaneity | | | | from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean. Events in |
| means that this new movement has a life of its own, | | | | Lebanon are pressurized by stresses of the |
| and is already growing beyond the boundaries of | | | | continental-scale civil war now developing. It has the |
| organized political life — and organized politics in | | | | privilege of being the second fracture in the |
| Lebanon is already organized violence. Such was the | | | | tectonic plates. Events there will, in turn, influence |
| uncontrolled character of events that politicians of all | | | | events elsewhere. It is already finding its own |
| hues and across the sectarian divide collectively called | | | | expression in Palestine and next among the |
| for restraint and respect for the Army and the curfew. | | | | Mediterranean contenders could be Egypt with its 7 |
| Even Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nashrallah went so | | | | million Coptic Christians among 60 million Muslims. |
| far as to call a Fatwah to enforce peace on the | | | | And what are the perspectives for Lebanon — |
| streets. | | | | another bloodbath? Actually, the crushing military |
| While all this was going on, an element of French farce | | | | superiority of Hezbollah probably mitigates more |
| entered into the theatre of events as the world | | | | against a bloodbath, than for it. With more than 40,000 |
| realised Lebanon was without a government. Nobody | | | | missiles and better equipped than the Lebanese Army, |
| was at home it seemed, just while the house was on | | | | they are likely not to need to fight to the death. The |
| fire. The besieged Prime Minister, Fouad Siniora was, in | | | | Lebanese Army would most likely prove useless in the |
| fact, in Paris with most of his ministers, doing a | | | | hands of the present Sunni/Christian government. It |
| fund-raiser from Gulf princes and Western leaders to | | | | would refuse to fight and/or dissolve as before. |
| get money to rebuild the country. While, of course, at | | | | However, the threat most likely to cause a bloodbath |
| the same time, the country was announcing it was | | | | is that of another Israeli invasion. If Israel invades on the |
| about to begin to cease to exist. | | | | side of, or even supplies arms to, the Sunni/Christian |
| So what next? Perhaps, in order to try to divert the | | | | block, then, this time, these collaborators will be |
| civil unrest along safe electoral channels, politicians of | | | | slaughtered mercilessly. Hezbollah will be fighting to the |
| all sides will agree to hold new Parliamentary elections. | | | | death. Clearly, this could, like Iraq, become a proxy war. |
| But in the new situation, the campaigns may only | | | | Iran could not afford to see Hezbollah annihilated. |
| become a new opportunity for more clashes and wide | | | | During the last war Nashrallah became a folk hero, |
| spread unrest, together with the assassination of | | | | even among the Sunnis throughout the Middle East |
| candidates, which is customary in the country. But the | | | | and Iran is empire-building. |
| fact is, that none of this can avoid or derail the | | | | Syria, like now, would most likely still be hesitant of |
| inevitability of a head on fight to the death between | | | | getting directly involved, and would act as a conduit for |
| the communities. | | | | arms and fighters. As things spiral out of control (as |
| When the rank and file supporters move ahead of | | | | maybe planned) Israel and the US will make the |
| their leaders, who are, themselves, practised veterans | | | | excuse to launch punitive airborne attacks on Iran. |
| of provoking and prosecuting civil wars, it must mean | | | | Specifically, they will use the coming Lebanese civil |
| that a subterranean chasm has opened up which | | | | war as the cover the destroy Iran’s nuclear |
| cannot be closed. These are movements, which are | | | | abilities. This is the reason why US aircraft carriers |
| self-generating with their own logic and inner dynamics. | | | | have already been opportunely positioned in the |
| They are irresistible and insatiable. Whatever political | | | | Persian Gulf, why Israel has been beefing up its plans |
| leaders try to do, whatever boulders and barriers are | | | | for aerial attack and Iran has been purchasing state of |
| thrown in its way, it will not be denied its desire for | | | | the art Russian anti-aircraft missiles. Should Iran choose |
| expression. Come what may the unrest will force its | | | | to, however, it has far greater capacity than Iraq did, to |
| way to the top, cutting open whatever channels are | | | | hit Israeli cities. Israel does have strong defences, but it |
| necessary and uprooting anything that stands in its | | | | would need US support, if bombed by Iran. We could |
| way. | | | | well see quite a fireworks display over the skies of the |
| There were already indications two days ago that the | | | | Middle East in the coming period. |
| depth of social unrest was much deeper and riper | | | | The big fly in the ointment is whether it can be |
| than had been suggested even by the ongoing, | | | | sold to the American people and whether a war can |
| organized demonstration outside Parliament. A national | | | | be sustained in Israel? Bush, we must remember, is not |
| general strike of organized labour brought the country | | | | in denial, but suffering psychotic delusions. He believes |
| to a standstill. And while it had strong links to the Shia | | | | he will have soon won some form of victory in Iraq, so |
| community, the strike itself was also a movement | | | | clearing the way for an attack on Iran. Moreover, there |
| from below, sanctioned rather belatedly from above | | | | are those who oppose the Iraq war, but would support |
| and moving also beyond the traditional methods | | | | limited action against the concrete threat of |
| and channels of sectarian strife. | | | | Iranian nuclear arms. So the scenario could not be ruled |
| In most other countries, a demonstrations and a sit-in | | | | out. |
| around parliament, a general strike and some bloody, | | | | Surely, the lesson of the events in Beirut yesterday |
| student battles would not be enough to start talking of | | | | are; never underestimate where a bun fight in a |
| civil war and national disintegration. But Lebanon is | | | | student cafeteria can lead. |
| country where the blood of genocidal sectarian strife is | | | | January 26th 01. |
| still hardly dry. Nearly every student today is a child of | | | | |